Determining Estimating Structure and Processes for Lunar Construction
For Mega Projects in the US, 90% are likely to run substantially over budget, and 77% are behind schedule. Typically, estimates do not maintain consistent line item-logic from beginning state to end state which leads to inaccurate predictions. As the lunar surface has extreme conditions, Moon construction projects will require an improved estimating methodology to capture the true current state and to provide reliable predictability of cost, time, and risk.
Alongside Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab (JHAPL), Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), NASA, and the Thought Consortium, a non-profit organization that brings together a cross-section of individuals from academia, industry, public, and private sectors, the team is developing estimating methodology for lunar construction.
The team has identified a theory that addresses predicting time, cost, and risk with minimum variance. Establishing an extreme condition project estimate with full cycle detail from the start of conceptual design and budget validation is paramount for stable data transitions. Objective and subjective considerations will stabilize the micro-detail structures throughout the design and planning iterations.
The study addresses a highly complex problem requiring experience and perspectives from all sectors, including aerospace engineering, construction, scheduling, and various other communities.
We’re moving rapidly in the study and would love to give individuals who are interested a chance to give input and share their expertise. If you are interested in taking part in the study, please fill out the interest form below and let us know how you would like to be involved.
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Abstract
This presentation explores the challenges of accurately predicting costs and timelines for projects in extreme environments, mainly emphasizing building a permanent human habitat on the Moon. This team proposes a holistic framework that combines objective and subjective predictive analysis with production model sequences, aiming to provide a more reliable approach to mitigate the uncertainties inherent in extreme conditions. We will further strengthen this framework by drawing insights from case studies of Earth-based projects in similarly challenging environments like Antarctica.
Objective and Subjective Predictive Analyses (OSPA) form the core of our approach. Objective analysis involves leveraging historical data, industry benchmarks, digital models, and quantitative modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations to establish a robust foundation. On the other hand, subjective analysis incorporates expert opinions, risk assessments, and scenario planning to address the human element and unforeseen circumstances, ensuring flexibility and adaptability throughout the project lifecycle.
In this presentation, we will address:
- Comparing extreme conditions projects, here on Earth and in contrast to Moon Construction.
- What considerations are critical for cost reliability?
- What technologies are being used to help predict causality and its effect on the estimate contrasting to actual reality when constructing on the Moon.
- We will discuss the major role that robotics and automation play in integrated cost prediction and control construction projects.
- We will explore new techniques being developed for interactive simulated cost and production modeling.
- Examine how means and methods of construction have an exponential impact and must be considered appropriately during the estimate.
- Explore major risks exposed by Moon dust.
Implementing lunar construction projects is a monumental task, requiring innovative project management approaches. Our proposed framework, informed by insights from Earth-based case studies and blending objective and subjective analyses, provides an avenue for achieving reliable cost and time estimations for lunar endeavors and other large-scale and extreme projects.
